Trends and Determinants of Secondary School Achievement in Jamaica: A Time-Series Analysis of CSEC Five-Subject Passes in Mathematics and English Language (2010-2021)

Abstract

This study examines trends in the annual number of Jamaican students achieving at least five subjects, including Mathematics and English Language, at the Caribbean Secondary Education Certificate (CSEC) examinations. Using secondary data spanning 2010-2021 from the Ministry of Education, Youth and Information (MOEYI) and the Caribbean Examinations Council (CXC), the research employs a longitudinal, quantitative approach to identify patterns, disparities, and the effects of educational reforms. Descriptive and bivariate analyses were conducted to assess overall attainment, subject-specific performance, and differences by school type and socio-economic context. Findings indicate that overall five-subject attainment improved gradually over the study period, increasing from 41.7% in 2010 to 50.0% in 2019, although declines occurred during 2020 due to COVID-19 disruptions. English Language pass rates consistently exceeded those of Mathematics, with averages of 66% and 47%, respectively, highlighting persistent challenges in numeracy. Traditional high schools and urban institutions consistently outperformed non-traditional and rural schools, demonstrating the impact of structural inequalities on educational outcomes. Bivariate analyses revealed strong positive associations between subject-specific pass rates and the five-subject benchmark, particularly for Mathematics, indicating its critical role in overall student success. Policy interventions, such as literacy programmes and teacher training initiatives, corresponded with measurable gains in English Language achievement, whereas increases in Mathematics were less sustained. The findings underscore the need for targeted, equity-focused interventions to strengthen numeracy skills, reduce socio-economic disparities, and enhance overall secondary school achievement. These insights have implications for national human capital development, social mobility, and education policy planning in Jamaica.