International Journal of Insights & Transformations in Law, Crime & Justice

Forecasting Violent Crime in Jamaica: An ARIMAX Analysis of Macroeconomic and Social Determinants

2026-04-13T05:19:59+00:00

Violent crime continues to pose a critical challenge to public safety and socio-economic development in Jamaica, with homicide rates among the highest in the Caribbean. Despite extensive policing and intervention efforts, there is limited research examining how macroeconomic and social determinants dynamically influence violent crime over time. This study addresses this gap by employing a quantitative, retrospective time-series design, using annual data from 2000 to 2025. Homicide rates were obtained from official crime statistics, while macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, unemployment, income inequality, and inflation, alongside social expenditure data, were sourced from national and international agencies. A multivariate Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous inputs [ARIMAX (1,1,1)] model was estimated to assess both contemporaneous and lagged effects of these predictors on violent crime, with stationarity confirmed through Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests. The findings reveal that GDP growth and income inequality are positively associated with homicide rates, whereas higher social expenditure and increased unemployment exhibit a mitigating effect. The autoregressive component demonstrates strong persistence, indicating that past crime levels significantly predict current outcomes. The model explains approximately 78% of the variation in violent crime, demonstrating strong explanatory and predictive capacity. Forecasts for 2026-2035 suggest a gradual decline in homicide rates under projected macroeconomic and social conditions, though rates remain elevated, highlighting persistent structural vulnerabilities. These results emphasise the need for integrated policy strategies that combine economic stabilisation, social investment, and crime prevention interventions. By quantifying the relative contributions of each determinant, the study provides a robust framework for evidence-based forecasting and strategic planning to reduce violent crime in Jamaica.

Leadership and Crime Prevention in Jamaica: Community Policing, Violence Prevention Strategies, and Youth Crime Intervention

2026-04-23T10:33:19+00:00

Crime and violence remain among the most significant challenges confronting Jamaica’s social stability and economic development. While extensive research has examined crime patterns, socioeconomic determinants of violence, and policing strategies, comparatively little scholarly attention has been devoted to leadership in crime governance and prevention. This paper examines leadership within three key domains of crime prevention in Jamaica: community policing leadership, leadership strategies in violence prevention, and leadership roles in youth crime intervention. Drawing on policy reports, institutional documents, and scholarly literature, the study analyses how leadership structures within law enforcement agencies, community organisations, and governmental institutions influence crime prevention outcomes. The findings indicate that leadership plays a critical role in shaping collaborative governance, strengthening police-community relations, and implementing preventative interventions targeting youth at risk of criminal involvement. Community policing initiatives demonstrate the importance of trust and collective efficacy in crime prevention, while violence prevention programmes illustrate the need for cross-sectoral leadership that integrates public health, social development, and law enforcement strategies. Youth crime intervention initiatives highlight the importance of mentorship, education, and social opportunities in disrupting pathways to criminal behaviour. The paper concludes that leadership is a central component of sustainable crime reduction in Jamaica and recommends the development of empirical research frameworks to evaluate leadership models in crime-prevention governance.

Parental Determinants of Crime and the Preventive Role of Faith-Based Institutions in Jamaica: A Social Ecological Perspective

2026-08-13T12:35:49+00:00

Crime remains one of the most persistent social and developmental challenges confronting Jamaica, despite decades of governmental intervention and criminal justice reform. While considerable scholarly attention has been devoted to structural determinants such as poverty, inequality, unemployment and organised criminal networks, comparatively less emphasis has been placed on the influence of parental characteristics and family environments as antecedents of criminal behaviour. This article critically examines how parental factors, including father absence, inadequate parental supervision, child maltreatment and socioeconomic disadvantage, contribute to the development of antisocial behaviour and criminal offending, while evaluating the potential contribution of faith-based institutions to primary crime prevention. Drawing upon contemporary criminological, psychological and sociological literature, the article adopts a multidisciplinary perspective informed by Social Learning Theory, Social Control Theory and the Social Ecological Model to explain the interaction between family processes, community contexts and individual behavioural outcomes. The analysis argues that effective crime prevention in Jamaica requires public policy that strengthens parenting capacity, enhances family resilience and mobilises churches as community-based partners rather than treating criminal justice responses as the sole mechanism for reducing violence.

Reconceptualising the Measurement of Rape in Jamaica: Expanding Legal and Empirical Definitions to Include Male Victimisation

2026-08-13T12:41:55+00:00

Rape in Jamaica has historically been defined, measured, and interpreted through a narrow legal and socio-cultural lens that privileges female victimisation while marginalising male experiences. This study critically examines the conceptual and methodological limitations embedded in traditional definitions of rape, particularly within Jamaican legal frameworks and statistical systems. Using a dissertation-style analytical approach, the research interrogates how underreporting, gender norms, and institutional biases contribute to the systematic exclusion of male victims from official crime statistics and scholarly discourse. The study advances a redefined conceptualisation of rape as any act of sexual intercourse that occurs against a person’s will, irrespective of gender, marital status, age, or physical or mental capacity to consent. By synthesising legal analysis, criminological theory, and empirical evidence, the paper demonstrates that the current measurement of rape in Jamaica is both incomplete and structurally biased. Comparative insights from international jurisdictions further reveal the feasibility and necessity of gender-neutral legal definitions and inclusive measurement frameworks. The study also explores the implications of redefining rape for public health policy, criminal justice reform, and social attitudes toward masculinity and victimhood. Ultimately, the research argues that expanding the definition of rape to include males is not merely a semantic adjustment but a fundamental requirement for achieving equity, accuracy, and justice in both legal and statistical systems. This reconceptualisation provides a foundation for more comprehensive victim support services and evidence-based policymaking in Jamaica.

Police Legal Literacy, Constitutional Compliance, and Democratic Accountability: An Examination of Professionalism, Intimidation, and Rights-Based Policing

2026-08-14T05:45:47+00:00

The relationship between policing, legal literacy, and professionalism remains a critical issue in criminology, sociology, and public administration because police officers exercise significant authority capable of affecting constitutional rights and democratic governance. This study examines how inadequate legal knowledge among police officers contributes to the transition from professionalism to intimidation-oriented policing practices. A qualitative and analytical research design was used; the study synthesises criminological, sociological, legal, and public administration literature concerning police discretion, procedural justice, institutional legitimacy, organisational culture, and constitutional policing. The discussion is guided by procedural justice theory, conflict theory, authoritarian policing theory, and social disorganisation theory to explain how inadequate legal competence contributes to coercive policing practices, abuse of authority, excessive force, unlawful detention, and procedural injustice. The findings reveal that police officers who lack sufficient understanding of constitutional rights and procedural safeguards are more likely to rely upon intimidation, aggression, and arbitrary authority during interactions with civilians. Such practices disproportionately affect marginalised populations, including economically disadvantaged communities and racial minorities, while simultaneously weakening public trust and cooperation with law enforcement agencies. The study further demonstrates that militarised organisational cultures, weak accountability systems, and inadequate professional training contribute significantly to the institutionalisation of intimidation-based policing. Additionally, intimidation-oriented policing produces serious psychological, social, and democratic consequences by undermining institutional legitimacy, community trust, and perceptions of justice. The study concludes that comprehensive legal education, ethical leadership, procedural justice reforms, independent oversight mechanisms, and community-centred policing strategies are essential for preserving professionalism within democratic policing institutions.

Addressing Paternity Fraud in Jamaica: Legal Reform, Socioeconomic Determinants, and Policy Interventions in a Postcolonial Context

2026-08-14T05:50:27+00:00

Paternity fraud in Jamaica represents a legally ambiguous and socially embedded phenomenon that challenges existing frameworks of family law, justice, and social policy. While global estimates of misattributed paternity vary, evidence suggests that rates are influenced by socioeconomic inequality, cultural norms, and institutional gaps. In Jamaica, the issue is further complicated by informal family structures, economic marginalisation, and limited enforcement of legal safeguards. This paper critically examines the structural drivers, legal deficiencies, and social consequences of paternity fraud using a multidisciplinary policy lens. Drawing on sociological theory, legal analysis, and public health perspectives, the study evaluates how misattributed paternity affects men, women, and children differently. It argues that the absence of mandatory verification mechanisms and clear legal remedies contributes to systemic injustice. The paper proposes a comprehensive policy framework that integrates legal reform, social protection, and public education. Ultimately, it contends that addressing paternity fraud requires balancing biological truth, social fatherhood, and child welfare within Jamaica’s unique socio-legal context.

Developing a Moral Crisis Leadership Framework: Ethical Leadership, Institutional Governance, Public Trust, and National Resilience in Jamaica

2026-09-16T06:38:07+00:00

Jamaica continues to experience significant socioeconomic and institutional challenges that have generated increasing public concern regarding governance, ethical leadership, institutional accountability, and national development. Substantial scholarly attention has been devoted to crime, corruption, and economic development; comparatively little research has examined these issues through the integrated lens of crisis leadership and moral governance. This study proposes a multidimensional examination of the relationship between perceived moral decline, institutional leadership, corruption, political trust, public sector professionalism, civic engagement, digital communication, and the objectification of women within Jamaican society. Drawing upon Crisis Leadership Theory, Ethical Leadership Theory, Institutional Theory, Social Capital Theory, and Moral Development Theory, the current study employs a convergent mixed-methods design combining quantitative surveys, qualitative interviews, focus groups, and documentary analysis. Quantitative data will examine relationships among leadership effectiveness, institutional trust, ethical governance, political participation, and public perceptions of moral values; qualitative findings provide contextual understanding of citizens' lived experiences and perceptions of institutional performance. The study is expected to demonstrate that declining institutional trust is associated with perceptions of corruption, inconsistent ethical leadership, reduced civic engagement, diminished public confidence in government institutions, and increased societal polarisation. It is further anticipated that effective crisis leadership, characterised by integrity, accountability, transparency, empathy, and ethical decision-making, emerges as a critical mechanism for restoring public confidence and strengthening national resilience. The study concludes by proposing an integrated Moral Crisis Leadership Framework capable of informing public policy, leadership development, institutional reform, and national renewal in Jamaica. The findings are expected to contribute to leadership scholarship, Caribbean governance studies, and broader international discussions regarding ethical leadership during periods of institutional and societal crisis.