Forecasting Violent Crime in Jamaica: An ARIMAX Analysis of Macroeconomic and Social Determinants

Abstract

Violent crime continues to pose a critical challenge to public safety and socio-economic development in Jamaica, with homicide rates among the highest in the Caribbean. Despite extensive policing and intervention efforts, there is limited research examining how macroeconomic and social determinants dynamically influence violent crime over time. This study addresses this gap by employing a quantitative, retrospective time-series design, using annual data from 2000 to 2025. Homicide rates were obtained from official crime statistics, while macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP, unemployment, income inequality, and inflation, alongside social expenditure data, were sourced from national and international agencies. A multivariate Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous inputs [ARIMAX (1,1,1)] model was estimated to assess both contemporaneous and lagged effects of these predictors on violent crime, with stationarity confirmed through Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests. The findings reveal that GDP growth and income inequality are positively associated with homicide rates, whereas higher social expenditure and increased unemployment exhibit a mitigating effect. The autoregressive component demonstrates strong persistence, indicating that past crime levels significantly predict current outcomes. The model explains approximately 78% of the variation in violent crime, demonstrating strong explanatory and predictive capacity. Forecasts for 2026-2035 suggest a gradual decline in homicide rates under projected macroeconomic and social conditions, though rates remain elevated, highlighting persistent structural vulnerabilities. These results emphasise the need for integrated policy strategies that combine economic stabilisation, social investment, and crime prevention interventions. By quantifying the relative contributions of each determinant, the study provides a robust framework for evidence-based forecasting and strategic planning to reduce violent crime in Jamaica.